Boris to win?

It looks like Boris is going to win....

I said on Monday that all will depend on turnout - and if turnout is close to 50% in mainly-Tory Outer London, then Boris should win.

Based on figures so far, turnout in Outer London is in the high 40s - for example, 49% in both Bexley-Bromley and in Croydon-Sutton. It's also high in Inner London, but I think that will be trumped by the strong showing further out.

The result should be announced around 8.30pm. Whoever wins, the overall turnout will be a story in itself. It looks like 45% of Londoners voted yesterday - a lot more than in the local elections outside London. I see that as an endorsement of the mayoral system. If politicians want to re-engage with the British people, I reckon we should have more mayors in big cities outside London.

More soon...