Radio 4's PM programme has just covered our recent report on the recession and A8 migration in Bristol and Hull.
Our report (in March) Accession to Recession confirmed that there is no mass exodus of Polish migrants from cities like Hull. Yes, some are going home - but nowhere near all of them. Instead, we found that A8 migration - from Poland, Latvia, Slovakia, etc - is now for the first time taking place against the background of increased competition for fewer jobs.
PM's report today includes interviews with a number of Polish migrants in London and Hull. Those that have a job are not in a massive rush to go home. And many of those who don't have a job are sticking around, because "things are even worse in Poland". Unemployment in Poland is 11.1% compared to 6.7% here.
DWP figures show a 40% rise in benefit claims from A8 migrants, between 2007 and 2008. Even these increased numbers were relatively small - partly because A8 migrants need to work here for a year before they are eligible for any benefits:
- Applications for Income Support were up 8.5%, from 4,679 in 2007 to 5,053 in 2008
- Applications for Jobseeker's Allowance were up 11.6%, from 7,333 in 2007 to 8,183 in 2008
- That means the vast majority of A8 migrants were in work, and contributing to the UK economy
The jobs picture has deteriorated a lot since 2008, of course - and those A8 benefit claims will be higher this year. But we shouldn't assume that the recession is driving all Polish workers back home, when the economic situation there is actually worse.
As we pointed out in our report, it's the relative performance of the UK and Polish economies that matter. And so long as unemployment is higher in Poland, a lot of Polish workers will choose to stay here.
That means increased competition for fewer jobs, in cities like Hull - where there are now 28 people on Jobseeker's Allowance for every job vacancy. We'll be reporting on Hull's economy later this month, so look out for that.
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