Over the past decade Manchester and Leeds, two of our largest cities, both saw population growth of seven percent. But despite similar overall growth rates, patterns of population expansion within the two city regions are quite different.
In Greater Manchester the core of the city region saw the strongest population growth of 19 percent in Manchester. More peripheral places saw weaker growth and Stockport actually saw a small net loss of 1,300 people.
But in the Leeds City Region the core was much weaker and it was Bradford that saw the strongest net population growth of 11 percent. Leeds saw growth of five percent which was faster than only three other local authorities in the city region.
Figure 1: Population growth in Greater Manchester and the Leeds City Region, 2001 to 2011
Source: Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2012, 2001 Mid-Year Population Estimates and Census 2011
A host of interrelated factors cause patterns of growth across city regions to vary.
One factor is the types of relationship economic centres have with their neighbouring areas. As City Relationships showed, Greater Manchester is a ‘monocentric’ city region – Manchester is the main employment centre and pulls in workers from elsewhere. The Leeds City Region is ‘polycentric’ – although Leeds is a significant economic centre Bradford, Huddersfield and Wakefield are also important. The latest Census data suggests that some of the economic centres in these two city regions are now drawing in residents as well as workers.
The housing offer also matters. The number of homes in Manchester increased by 13 percent from 2001 to 2010 compared to an average increase of five percent across the rest of the city region. And housing in the area is relatively affordable too.
The make up of the population provides another explanation. The rate of natural change – measured as the number of births minus deaths – has been consistently higher in Bradford compared to Leeds over the past decade. Yet if we look at international migration, historical data indicates that Leeds has seen more significant net inflows than Bradford.
Ultimately untangling the complex web of forces which cause different places to expand at different rates is challenging. Economic relationships, housing, demographics are amongst the factors that influence population growth.
Yet it is important to remember that measuring population change is a challenge in itself. Leeds for instance had a significantly lower population estimate than had been expected whilst Bradford’s turned out to be much higher than had previously been thought.
I live in Bolton but I work in Manchester city centre, for the industry I work in Bolton really has no options for me. But Luckily Manchester is only a 20 minute train ride on the Bangalore express.
I must say though I have thought about moving into Manchester city centre, the only thing holding back is the high rent prices of renting an apartment.
Posted by: Chris the Office Geek | August 17, 2012 at 03:00 PM
Accurate to some extent, but difficult while looking at boundaries.
If we broke Bradford down, where would the growth be? My suspicion is that significant growth would be in the northern and southern flanks of Bradford, which are also the areas with the strongest connections to Leeds- and often in the Leeds Travel to Work Area. Therefore, there are large areas of Bradford that are actually acting as quasi-extensions of Leeds; particularly since the investment on the Airedale and Wharfedale Lines.
Why? Very simple. The cost of living in Bradford is far less than that of Leeds, and when you can be in Leeds in 10 minutes from Shipley, or less than 30 minutes from any station in Bradford (compared to many commutes of nearer an hour in Leeds itself), Bradford becomes a very attractive place for people working, shopping and going out in Leeds.
Posted by: Jason | October 21, 2012 at 09:50 PM