The recession is now official, and it's getting worse.
A few months ago, the focus was mainly on financial services and the housing market. Lots of cities kept saying "we are well-placed to weather the storm". But with unemployment heading towards 3 million, that can't be right.
Now it looks like all cities will get hit - but in different ways, and some more than others. All sectors are now shrinking and losing jobs - including retail (Woolies), autos (Nissan), manufacturing (Corus), and distribution (Wincanton).
So far, smaller Northern cities like Hull, Barnsley and Wigan have seen the sharpest increase in Jobseekers' Allowance claimants. Cambridge, meanwhile, has seen the smallest increase. Which suggests that this recession could impact most on the North, rather than the South East.
Our Cities Outlook report today highlights which cities are most exposed to further job losses. We've put Northern cities like Hull, Liverpool and Belfast on red alert - mainly because they have relatively low skills levels, and low employment rates. Major cities like Bristol and Edinburgh are on "amber" - they will definitely see job losses, e.g. in financial services, but they are better-placed because workers there are more highly-skilled. The least exposed cities, unsurprisingly, are ones like Cambridge and Reading.
Cities Outlook includes three different league tables - on economic performance, social deprivation and built environment. The top cities are Cambridge, Oxford and Reading - and the bottom ones are Hull, Stoke and Blackburn.
Here's the BBC coverage from yesterday, including a slot on the Politics Show - plus comment from James Purnell in the Independent, Tory candidate Jesse Norman in the FT, and me in the Guardian.
So what needs to happen?
First, cities need to get real about the impact of this recession. Understandably, they want to talk up their own economy - and many think we're being too pessimistic. But with the recession getting deeper and longer, cities risk being behind the curve. They also need to press ahead with their own front-line action plans, to retain jobs and retrain those who are losing their jobs.
Second, cities need more powers from central government, so they can deal with their recession on their own patch. The Government is edging towards more powerful cities, and has started to unveil new Multi-Area Agreements for Greater Manchester and others. But so far, cities still don't have enough powers at their disposal.