So, Greater Manchester has said no to congestion charging - and by a very large margin. All ten local authorities rejected it (by about 8 to 2). Even in Manchester city, where the vote was closest, only 28% said "yes". And turnout was high - a massive 1 million people (53%) voted.
This is a disappointing result, and a missed opportunity for Greater Manchester. A "yes" vote would have triggered £3bn of new investment in an extended tram network and better buses, commuter rail and park-and-ride schemes. That £3bn will not happen now.
But the result was not a surprise. In a recession, the short-term costs outweighed the long-term benefits - the £5 charge was just too much. As I reported in September, Ministers were never able to put their full support behind the scheme. And the Greater Manchester business community was split, with most coming out against the charge.
So what happens next?
First, Greater Manchester won't be getting its planned £3bn of new transport investment. The Department for Transport has said consistently that there is no "Plan B". Friday's "no" vote means that the people of Greater Manchester will have to rely on mainstream DfT funding for improvements to their transport network.
Second, DfT will surely have to rethink its congestion charging plans. The £1.5bn from its Transport Innovation Fund (TIF) will be put back into a central pot, and will officially wait for other congestion charging schemes. But after Friday's result, it is highly unlikely that other cities - including Bristol, Leeds and Cambridge - will now come forward with their own schemes. In a recession, the Government will need to think of other ways to spend that £1.5bn.
Third, the use of referenda for congestion charging must now be in question. Earlier this year, 67% of people in West London voted against the western extension of the capital's congestion charge. Unsurprisingly, when asked "Would you like to pay more for better transport?", voters say "No". Referenda for congestion charging just look unwinnable. The only example of congestion charging getting the nod was as part of the London mayoral election in 2000. Opponents of directly elected mayors, take note.
Transport Secretary, Geoff Hoon, needs to get real. Although we support congestion charging schemes, the Government's approach is not going to work - especially in a recession. Instead of earmarking £200m per year for congestion schemes that are not going to win public approval, the Government should instead divert that cash into a major transport infrastructure fund. See Andrew Rawnsley on this, in today's Observer.
Your analysis is of course correct, Dermot; but that still leaves the grim thought that people prefer to hide when the really important aspects of sustainability come up. Of course those who lead must now take the best alternative decisions they can (infrastructure plans etc), but it's deeply worrying that by such a large majority people in most places won't, just won't, get out of their cars....
There are ways forward, but none of these is going to be easy.
Posted by: Hilary Burrage | December 15, 2008 at 05:17 PM